Integrated Transit and Thoughts on the Future of Chicago's Transit System in I Hope This Helps 👍🏽
Integrated Transit from Via, how CTA can avoid a transit death spiral, electric buses and attention economies in this week's edition of I Hope This Helps👍🏽
Welcome to I Hope This Helps👍🏽, a weekly (ish) roundup of tidbits I’ve encountered that furthered my thinking about cities and life. From sustainable transportation, housing, and design to the social forces shaping our daily lives, I take a broad lens in this review. This week I’m sticking to my niche and discussing some of the pressing issues facing US transit systems today. Whether you're a planner, advocate, or just curious about the world around you, I hope you’ll find something here that resonates. Take what helps. Leave what doesn’t.
1️⃣Integrated Transit from Via
Note: This is not an ad. I’m a big fan of Via and I think they’re driving much needed innovation in the public transit space.
At the beginning of 2024, the City of Sioux Falls switched operators for their public transit system, ending their existing contract with Transdev. Over half of US transit agencies contract some or all of their services out to private operators, with these contracts typically renegotiated every handful of years, so Sioux Falls’ decision to switch providers isn’t news by itself. What is news is that Via, the TransitTech company known for its microtransit service offerings, was selected as the new operator. Through a whole-of-network approach they’re dubbing “Integrated Transit,” Via is getting into fixed route operations1.
The knee-jerk reaction to this might be to fear that this microtransit operator is coming in to convert entire fixed route networks to microtransit service. While I’m not a Via oracle, I have been impressed with their candor about what microtransit can and cannot do. From them:
At first glance, managing an entire network may seem new for Via. But for years, we’ve been building technology and operational capabilities within a whole-network mindset that balances system-wide efficiency with rider experience…
…Fixed-route services clearly have the potential to operate more cost-effectively than microtransit. So when a city’s density and travel patterns support high-quality bus service, we prioritize it…
…But when fixed-route services perform poorly, it comes at a cost: the per-trip cost on some bus lines, particularly in less dense areas, can climb above $20, or even $30. Not only can microtransit do better on cost in many places, it can also provide broader coverage and better quality service when deployed thoughtfully.
Fixed route service is a relatively low-tech solution that is great at carrying a lot of people. Microtransit is relatively high-tech solution that is great at providing coverage service to fewer people, where density and travel demand is low. Via seems to understand the nexus between the two. More notably, they’ve built a leading microtransit technology platform that they use themselves, and sell as a standalone product to transit agencies and other private operators charged with delivering microtransit service.
In a way, I think Via is postured similarly to Tesla in US Electric Vehicle (EV) space. In the the early 2020s when consumer demand for electric vehicles was surging and legacy auto manufacturers were scrambling to adapt their cars into EVs, Tesla already had several EV models built and ready to sell. Today, despite increased competition from legacy auto manufacturers, Tesla is still the best selling EV brand in the United States2. Similarly, while agencies and private sector operators are figuring out how to best plan, implement and operate microtransit service, Via was built on it.
2️⃣How CTA Can Avoid a Death Spiral
CTA, Metra and Pace need a combined $771M annually to avert 40% service cuts starting in 2026. At the same time, Chicago Public Schools (CPS) is starting the school year with a $734M budget deficit, and the City of Chicago is contending with a projected $1.2B budget deficit. Everybody needs money at the same time and in a funding head to head between transit, schools and the City itself3, I’m not sure transit comes out on top. If we’re forced to make these cuts, uniform cuts across the board all but guarantee a death spiral.
Death Spiral (v) - Transit (informal). A pattern of decline for transit authorities where reduced fare revenue requires transit authorities to reduce service or increase fares to cover the costs. This reduced service makes transit less useful, which makes less people ride, which further reduces fare revenue. Basically, it’s a race to the bottom.
However, strategic cuts that maintain a core network and align with how people are already using the system could provide a path to weather this storm and establish a solid foundation to rebuild upon. Let’s see what this could look like for the CTA
3️⃣Electric Fleet Transitions & the US Bus Market
Generally, US transit authorities are required to cover their operating costs locally. However, capital expenses like new bus purchases are often covered by grants from the federal government. This helps ensure transit agencies have the funds to support a modern, well-maintained fleet. Unfortunately, these funds also come with strings attached; namely strong Buy America Build America requirements. Albeit noble, these requirements significantly limit the buses US agencies can purchase if using federal money. Despite there being dozens of full sized transit bus manufacturers globally, if you ride a transit bus in the United States, it’s probably a Gillig, Newflyer, NovaBus4, or an ENC. Multiple buyers, paired with limited sellers makes for a supply constrained market with limited competition producing meh buses overall.
The recent focus on fleet electrification has taken an already supply constrained market and further stoked demand. Many transit authorities have been tasked with transitioning to a fully electric fleet, with some of the most aggressive timelines calling for a full transition by 2030. Meanwhile, most bus manufacturers, like the legacy auto manufacturers, are scrambling to adapt and mass produce their existing vehicle offerings into Battery Electric Buses (BEBs) for their captive customer base. The result? BEBs with shorter ranges than their Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) equivalents that can cost nearly twice as much to purchase. While the cost differential is a challenge, range limitations are the larger barrier for BEBs available in the United States. Whereas ICE buses can cover an excess of 500 miles before needing to refuel, the best BEBs on the US market can travel ~250 miles in ideal conditions5 before needing to stop and charge. This limitation means that many transit authorities pursuing fleet transitions must also adjust their schedules to meet the limitations of the vehicles, which limits operational flexibility and potentially requires fleet increases to cover the same amount of service. This video from RM transit covers the topic well!
4️⃣Are We in an Attention Economy?
In a world where everybody is distracted by something, the people, places and institutions that hold the most power are the ones that can command our collective attention. This presents a particular challenge for content like zoning reform, which is 1) necessary for more affordable cities 2) painfully boring. This article explores the concept of an attention economy, where the most valuable resource isn’t money but access to people’s attention. Here’s an excerpt:
Traditional economic theory assumes information flows serve resource allocation. But increasingly, resource allocation serves attention flows. We've moved from an economy where attention supports other forms of value creation to one where attention is the value creation
🚲A Moment for Bikes
During the pandemic, when capacity restrictions and ghost buses made transit a less viable option, I bought an annual Divvy membership and starting biking around the city. After the year was up, I picked up a bike of my own and have been taking to the streets on two wheels ever since. Whenever I feel a case of the scaries setting in, a ride on my bike always gets me back to a better headspace. Come ride with me down the Lakefront Trail and around Downtown Chicago!
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They’ve actually been here for a while
With a federal government very unlikely to step in
They stopped manufacturing in the US in 2023
New vehicles with mild outdoor temperatures